College Football Handicapping is the process of researching future events (college football games) for the purposes of being better able to predict their outcome. So why handicap football, and college (i.e. NCAA) football in particular? Examine some facts.
Using the best estimates of sports wagering in the United States for 2010, the amount of money wagered on all sports exceeded $350 billion. Since tracking online sports wagering is difficult and imprecise, for statistics, we should focus on the known. According to Nevada State Gaming Control Board statistics, sports wagering (excluding all forms of horse racing) in Nevada for 2010 totaled $2,401,053,604. Of that 2.4 billion, $1,050,324,675 was wagered on football. That means that football betting comprised nearly 44% of all of the non-racing sports betting. This is statistical evidence that football is the most popular sport in America on which to bet.
Okay. So there is proof that football is popular. So what? Using popularity for NCAA football handicapping, in fact any sports handicapping, is an absolute asset. Popularity, in the form of the number of bets and the amount of money wagered on one side of a given wager, moves the betting line. The more casual bettors who have not done their wagering research, the more profitable opportunities presented to the informed sports handicapper.Bts
While the Nevada State Gaming Control Board does not further divide the football statistics into college and professional, it is believed by some that college (NCAA) football edges out the pros. Even if that were not the case, consider the following:
Up until 2012, there were 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). The NFL has 32 teams. In any given week of football, there will be around 60 NCAA football games to the NFL’s 15. In addition to having four times as many games to choose from, many NCAA FBS football teams are seldom-followed. Louisiana-Lafayette, for example, was 6-1 (85.71%) Against-The-Spread (ATS) for their away games in 2010. For that 2010 college football season, 39 teams (32.5%) had an ATS winning percentage that was greater than 58%. For the 2010 NFL season, 8 teams (25%) had an ATS winning percentage greater than 58%. Looking further, 22 college teams (18.3%) had an ATS winning percentage that exceeded 63%. Only 4 NFL teams (12.5%) could boast as much. There were 7 college teams who had an ATS winning percentage greater than 75%. The NFL had none! Even while being (perhaps) the most popular, NCAA football handicapping still offers the greatest opportunity to uncover value.
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